Getting real? Wargaming the current war

I don't normally do solo wargaming. To me it always used to smack of desperation - "Billy No Mates" and all that. Even through lockdown I rarely bothered, unless it was something written with solo play as an option (like Zona Alfa).

I also don't tend to do games based on current events. I'm not pontificating here. Philosophically I don't really see a big difference in playing a game which involves thousands of my representative troops being killed in a mad charge against a Roman Legion, or fighting through the rubble of Stalingrad. However the last really "current" conflict I played was back in 1982 when me and some friends at Hartlepool Wargames Club (Hi Dave Lakey!) played out some "What if" games as the British Task Force headed for the South Atlantic, before the real shooting war began. I don't think we really expected it to turn into a real shooting war. When our games resulted in a couple of Royal Navy warships being sunk by missiles I don't think we thought it would ever happen. Subconsciously I think I shied off from then on. I played lots of "What if" Cold War goes hot stuff, but no actual "live" conflicts. 

Anyway I digress. Mark F has been sorting through a box of spare 1:3000 scale warships dating back to the 80s, and asked for some help identifying what was what. I dutifully dug out my old 1982 copy of Janes Fighting ships and my model collection, and started to try and match his blurry pics to what I had. (seriously m8 my eyesight is bad enough - take better pictures!). This got me to thinking about current events, particularly the loss of the Slava Class missile cruiser Moskva. Interest peaked I dug out my old rules (Shipwreck) and decided to see what happens. Shipwreck was published in 1999 and was written with the 80s and 90s era in mind. Moskva was straight out of that era, and the Ukrainian Neptune missiles are very similar to US Harpoon* missiles, so that would do for my little experiment.

Scenario 1 - Wide Awake

I set the scene as much as I can work from open source material. Moskva is cruising with no close escort, and is attacked by a pair of Neptune SSMs fired from a land based launcher. Targeting is assumed to be a passive shot - ie the Ukrainians know the general area the cruiser is operating in, but don't have a precise fix. How the Ukrainians have a firing solution is currently unclear but I suspect someone from Langley may have made a call. Anyway the action starts as the two missiles reach maximum possible detection range for the Moskva's radar. 

Undetected missiles in grey

Onboard Moskva the radar operators are awake and alert. They make a detection attempt on the two incoming missiles, and much to my surprise, good dice results mean both are detected and identified as hostile. Someone hits the klaxon and alarms blare! However there is not a lot the ship can do at the moment. The main anti aircraft system is the S300F (SA-N-6). This is an area defence system and at least in Shipwreck can't target the incoming sea skimming missiles. That will have to be the job for the point defence systems - Moskva has a pair of OSA-M (SA-N-4) launchers, a twin 130mm gun and three groups of AK-630 gatling Close In Weapons Systems (CIWS). Not all of these can bear of course, but they're all brought on line.   

detected - red!

The missiles are coming in fast and low. They're subsonic, but they will still cover the distance to the ship in less than 2 minutes.... 

The SA-N-4 shoots first as the missiles get to very short range . Two missiles streak out, but miss. Moskva launches Chaff, but this will be resolved later.

The guns go into action. The 130mm and the front CIWS group open up, but miss. The starboard side CIWS however gets lucky, killing one missile. One left.

The remaining missile suddenly veer away, distracted by the chaff cloud, and crashes into the sea. All on board cheer with relief! A warship has shown it can defeat an ASM attack, just as designed.

Scenario 2 - Asleep at the Wheel?

We don't know if Moskva was aware she was under attack, but the pictures that have emerged show her SA-N-4 system is still stowed, and the missile directors are arranged fore and aft, which strongly suggests she was not. Maybe she was in passive mode, just listening, which it has to be said seems strange for an AA cruiser in a warzone, but stranger things have happened.

In this case the missiles are not detected until they are on their final attack run - Shipwreck assumes either someone sees them at very short range, or the seeker heads are detected when they go active.  Either way this is bad news. This time all the defenses miss - bad dice and no warning. The chaff isn't launched in time....

Both missiles hit the Moskva. One strikes forward under the bow CIWS cluster. It disables the guns but does only light damage. The second hit is a different story, hitting amidships and causing crippling damage. All power is lost and a fire rages. 

Damage control fights bravely, but two turns later the fires spread and the ship has to be abandoned. It sinks shortly after that. 

Not sure what this proves, other than even 23 years after publication Shipwreck works as a set of rules. Also the slightly disconcerting thought that possibly I'm ok with "current" wars as long as my countrymen are not doing the dying, which is food for thought. Will I be doing more from this war - nope. I'm still uncomfortable with that. However now I have dug out the rules and models maybe I will give them a spin again in a fictitious Cold War gone Hot scenario.

* The R-360 Neptune is a Ukrainian developed weapon that is based on the Soviet Kh-35 anti ship missile. The Kh-35 bears a startling resemblance to the US designed Harpoon, to the point it is often referred to as Harpoonski 

Thanks